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美联储激进加息引发全球“加息潮” 世界经济前景亮起红灯

The Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates as it tries to tame the most rapid inflation in decades, an effort the central bank sees as necessary to restore price stability in the United States.

为控制近几十年来最严峻的通胀危机,美联储已经开始采取激进加息政策,将其视为稳定美国物价的必要措施。

But what the Fed does at home reverberates across the globe, and its actions are raising the risks of a global recession while causing economic and financial pain in many developing countries.

但其所作所为在全球范围内引发震荡,加剧了全球衰退风险,同时给许多发展中国家经济和金融造成冲击。

Other central banks in advanced economies, from Australia to the eurozone, are also lifting rates rapidly to fight their inflation. And as the Fed’s higher interest rates attract money to the United States — pumping up the value of the dollar — emerging-market economies are being forced to raise their own borrowing costs to try to stabilize their currencies to the extent possible.

从澳大利亚到欧元区,其他发达经济体的央行也在迅速加息对抗通胀。美联储通过加息加速海外资本回流、提振美元价值,使得新兴市场经济体不得不提高借贷成本,以尽可能稳定其货币。

Many economists and several international bodies have warned that there’s a pronounced danger or overdoing it, including a United Nations agency that warned the damage could be particularly acute in poorer nations. Developing economies had already been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis because of soaring food and fuel prices, and now their American imports are growing steadily more expensive as the dollar marches higher.

许多经济学家和国际机构警告称,当前的政策明显存在风险,且过于激进,例如联合国某机构警告称,发展中国家受到的冲击尤其严重。由于食品和能源价格飙升,发展中国家已经在应对生活成本危机,而现在随着美元走高,从美国进口的商品价格持续上涨。

The Fed’s moves have spurred market volatility and worries about financial stability, as higher rates elevate the value of the US dollar, making it harder for emerging-market borrowers to pay back their dollar-denominated debt.

美联储的加息政策引发了市场波动及对金融稳定的担忧,因为加息提升了美元价值,使新兴市场借贷人更难偿还其以美元计价的债务。

It is a recipe for globe-spanning turmoil and even recession. Despite that, the Fed is poised to continue raising interest rates.

这可能导致全球经济动荡甚至衰退。尽管如此,美联储仍准备继续加息。

The World Bank warned last month that simultaneous interest-rate increases around the world could trigger a global recession next year, causing financial crises in developing economies. It urged central banks in advanced economies to be mindful of the cross-border “spillover effects.”

世界银行9月警告称,世界各国同时加息可能会导致2023年全球经济衰退、发展中国家金融危机爆发。该机构敦促发达经济体央行警惕跨境“溢出效应”。

“To achieve low inflation rates, currency stability and faster growth, policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production,” David Malpass, the World Bank president, said.

世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯表示:“为了实现低通胀率、货币稳定和更快的增长,政策制定者可以将重点从减少消费转向促进生产。”

This week, the UN Conference on Trade and Development said the moves by the Fed and other central banks risked causing a global downturn. “Interest rate hikes by advanced economies are hitting the most vulnerable hardest,” the agency’s Trade and Development Report said.

本周召开的联合国贸易和发展会议表示,美联储和其他央行的举措可能导致全球经济衰退。会议发布的《2022年贸易与发展报告》称:“发达经济体加息对最脆弱的国家冲击最大。”

So far, major central banks have shown little appetite for stopping their inflation-busting campaigns. The Fed, which has made five rate increases this year, has signaled that it plans to raise borrowing costs even higher.

截至目前,各大央行几乎没有停止加息的打算。美联储今年已经加息五次,并表示计划继续加息。

Inflation is high across much of the world: 88 percent of low-income countries, 91 percent of lower-middle-income countries and 93 percent of upper-middle-income countries have seen inflation above 5 percent in recent months, according to the World Bank. Food costs in particular have driven millions further into extreme poverty, exacerbating hunger and malnutrition. As the dollar surge makes a range of imports pricier for emerging markets, that situation could worsen, even as the possibility of financial upheaval increases.

当前世界大部分地区的通胀率居高不下:据世界银行统计,近几个月来,88%的低收入国家、91%的中低收入国家和93%的中高收入国家的通胀率超过5%。特别是粮食成本提高,使数百万人进一步陷入赤贫,饥饿和营养不良问题恶化。美元飙升使新兴市场的一系列进口产品价格更高,这种情况可能继续恶化,甚至增加爆发金融危机的可能性。

“Low-income developing countries in particular face serious risks from food insecurity and debt distress,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, said during a news conference this week.

世界贸易组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉在本周的新闻发布会上表示:“低收入发展中国家尤其面临严重的粮食危机和债务危机风险。”

In Africa, officials have been urging the I.M.F. and Group of 20 nations to provide more emergency assistance and debt relief amid inflation and rising interest rates.

在非洲,官员们敦促国际货币基金组织和二十国集团在通货膨胀和利率上升的情况下提供更多的紧急援助和债务减免。

To be sure, central bankers in big developed economies like the United States are aware that they are barreling over other economies with their policies.

可以肯定的是,美国等主要发达经济体的央行已经意识到,他们的政策正在使其他经济体陷入被动。

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