马士基CEO:制造业没有回流欧美,下半年集装箱运量会下降
全球第二大集装箱航运公司马士基认为,全球化并没有瓦解,但贸易壁垒日益减少的时代已经结束。
当地时间6月19日,据英国《金融时报》报道,全球第二大集装箱航运公司马士基首席执行官Soren Skou在接受采访时表示,制造业没有回流欧美,集装箱运输量可能很快会遭到重创。
Skou指出:“我们没看到客户将生产转移回欧美,相反,他们正在亚洲寻找更多的供应商,因此我们很难在短期甚至是中期会看到世界生产消费品的方式发生巨大的变化。”
在Skou看来,全球化并没有瓦解,这番言论与许多企业高管的悲观情绪形成鲜明对比,后者认为全球化正受到攻击。马士基是全球贸易的风向标,逾六分之一的集装箱通过该公司远洋运输。数据提供商Sentieo上个月发现,马士基近期在业绩会中提到,近岸外包、境内外包和海外外包的次数是自2005年以来的最高水平。【小编注:Sentieo.com 专门研究上市公司的信息披露,提炼出参考信息给用户】
不过,Skou也承认全球地缘政治对航运业有影响,以及美国也缺乏新的贸易协议,但是他强调,全球供应链没有发生巨大变化。“全球贸易一般会随着GDP的变化而变化,它没有变得更自由化,所以我们不会看到它更多的增长,也没有发生急剧反转。”
Skou预计,随着全球经济增长停滞,今年下半年集装箱运输量将会有所下降,他说:“自第一波新冠肺炎大流行结束以来,导致集装箱航运繁荣的因素可能很快会出现急剧逆转。”他补充称,可能会出现需求萎缩和供应增加的“长鞭效应”,而此前近两年,航运集团一直无力应对消费者支出激增。
“当情况发生时,速度将会相当快,我们预计这(运输量下降)不太可能发生在下半年初,可能要到8月或更晚才会发生。”Skou说,“我不想说我害怕。”他指的是集装箱航运长期合同的增加,以及陆运物流业务的快速增长。
值得一提的是,由于创纪录的运费、持续的港口拥堵和供应链困境等因素,马士基预计其2022年的收益将可能创新高。
小编个人观点:船运公司是贸易自由化的受益者,同时物流主要是贸易的末端环节,传导也可能相对滞后。当然欢迎这样的言论,也不要太掉以轻心. 附上这位ceo发言前后的股价图以及最近五年的马士基股价图。
下面疑似是上面译文的出处,来自金融时报,直接上英文了。
Global trade is not going into reverse, says Maersk boss
US and European companies spreading production around Asia rather than reshoring, shipping group chief claims
Globalisation is not unravelling but the era of ever greater reductions in barriers to trade is at an end, according to one of the shipping world’s top executives.
Søren Skou, chief executive of AP Møller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipping group, told the Financial Times that he saw little evidence of US or European manufacturers bringing production back home. Instead, they were looking for additional suppliers around Asia.
“Global trade is where it is. It’s going to grow more or less with GDP,” he said. “It’s not liberalising more, so we’re not going to see [even] more growth. It’s also not going sharply in reverse.”
The comments from the Maersk boss, whose company is a bellwether for global trade as it transports more than one in six containers across the oceans, contrast sharply with the gloom of many business executives who believe globalisation is under attack, particularly from populist politicians. Last month data provider Sentieo found that mentions of nearshoring, onshoring and reshoring in company results meetings and investor briefings were at their highest level since at least 2005.
Skou acknowledged the impact of populist political movements and the lack of new trade deals in the US but underscored that he saw no dramatic shift in supply chains.
“We don’t see our customers moving production back to Europe. They’re spreading it around in Asia,” Skou said. “It’s very difficult to see in the short term or maybe even the mid term that you will see a dramatic change in the way the world produces consumer goods.”
Maersk is expecting container shipping volumes to be lower in the first half of this year as world economic growth stalls. But thanks to record freight rates, congestion in ports and supply chain woes, the Danish group is forecasting record earnings in 2022.
Skou said that container shipping could soon be hit by a sharp reversal of the factors that have led to it booming since the end of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. He added that there could be a “bullwhip effect” where demand contracts and supply increases, after almost two years of the opposite phenomenon during which shipping groups were unable to respond to a surge in consumer spending. “When it happens, it could go quite quickly,” he added.
He said it was unlikely to happen at the beginning of the second half of the year — as Maersk had previously assumed — but could happen in August or later in the year. “I don’t want to say I’m afraid of it,” he said, pointing to an increase in long-term contracts in container shipping and a rapidly growing logistics business on land.